Author Archives: tommyers37

Thoughts on LessWrongness I want to have a small list of fundamental thoughts about which I’m probably wrong and need to update. Let’s start with  Utilitarianism    Once upon a time I did think of myself as a utilitarian, trying clumsily to judge my actions by their contributions towards the greatest good for the greatest numberContinue reading “LessWrongness#1 — Utilitarianism”

1. The last few days of June 2021 have prompted a significant update in my Bayesian bookshelf for 2050. That’s the imaginary 100-centimeter bookshelf on which I keep mental models of what I expect for that year, with each book getting shelfspace proportional to my current guess as to its probability, and the basic ruleContinue reading “Bookshelf 2050 — update”

   Dr. X: Hi, Joe! Here are your test results — notice that the first two are not actually tests you took, but you can use them the same way — and here’s Jack, a nurse who’s learning to explain Bayesian reasoning because that really wasn’t covered well in nursing school. He has paperwork or ratherContinue reading “Very Basic Bayes # 2”

1. Joe: Doctor X! I have Ickitis, I need a Pill! Quick!    Dr. X: Hold on a minute Take a deep breath — how do you know? How sure are you?   Joe: (breathes) I read there was an epidemic with about 1000 cases in town so I bought the test and it’s 99% accurate, soContinue reading “Very Basic Bayes”

1.  Given a possibly-true thought, I try to find alternatives; in fact I try to think of all the alternatives: I think of them as books and I set them on a Bayesian Bookshelf. That’s an imaginary shelf, but all the books (and magazines, pamphlets, individual ultra-thin sheets of paper, but I think of themContinue reading “Bayesian Bookshelf — 2050”

This is just a test; I estimate a 70% chance that it will look pretty much as I expect. (Update: It did, which I take as very weak evidence that my calibration might use some tweaking.)